68

A REVISION OF THE TREATY

CHAP.

only on the recovery of Germany , but on the stateof international trade generally, and more especiallyon the level of gold prices. 1 For the next two orthree years, if we are to make an estimate at all, 6to 10 milliards is, in my judgement, the best one canmake.

Twenty - six per cent of exports, valued at 6milliards gold, will amount to about \\ milliardgold marks, making, with the fixed annual paymentof 2 milliards, milliards altogether. If exportsrise to 10 milliards, the corresponding figure is 4 \milliards. The table of payments in the near futureis then as shown on the next page, all the figuresbeing in terms of milliards of gold marks. In thecase of payments after May 1, 1922,1 give alternativeestimates on the basis of exports on the scale of 6and 10 milliards respectively.

Not the whole of these sums need be paid in cash,and the value of deliveries in kind is to be creditedto Germany against them. This item has beenestimated as high as 1-2 to 1-4 milliard gold marksper annum. The result will chiefly depend (1) onthe amount and price of the coal deliveries, and (2)

1 In Tlie Economic Consequences of the Peace, p. 189,1 expressly premisedthat my estimates were based on a value of money not widely different fromthat existing at the date at which I wrote. Since then prices have risen andfallen back again. The same proviso is necessary in the case of the presentestimates. It would have been more practical if, in fixing Germany 'sliability in terms of money for a long period of years, some provision hadbeen made for adjusting the real burden in accordance with fluctuations inthe value of money during the period of payment.